https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/02/19/dark-skies-bring-new-observations-of-asteroid-2024-yr4-lower-impact-probability/
The full Moon washed out the sky for a week. Once it was dark again, telescopes went back to tracking asteroid 2024 YR4. On February 18, 2025, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies put its chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032 at 3.1%. That is the highest NASA has ever recorded for an object this size or bigger.
A day later, fresh observations cut it to 1.5%. Each new night of data shrinks the cloud of places the asteroid could be in 2032. Once Earth falls outside that cloud, the odds drop to zero. There was also a separate 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.
Lesson: early impact odds move fast, and more data is what settles them.
Source: science.nasa.gov · Also: ESO: 2024 YR4 seen by the Very Large Telescope (image)